In Malaysia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council says Indonesia’s B50 program is estimated to require around 17 million tons of palm oil for blending – an increase of 3 million tons from the current B40 mandate, equivalent to roughly 35% of Indonesia’s palm oil production. The country also consumes around 10 million tons for food purposes, leaving only about 22 million tons or less available for export if the B50 is implemented. This would result in a notable decline in exportable supply, as Indonesia has historically exported between 24 and 28 million tons of palm oil annually over the past five years.
Global vegetable oil demand in the coming season will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as exportable supplies of soybean oil from the US and Brazil are expected to decline sharply from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 – a 41% drop due to stronger domestic biofuel demand.
In Argentina, the temporary export tax exemption on soybean products announced in late September spurred heavy forward soybean sales, particularly to China. These front-loaded exports are expected to curb crushing activity and limit soybean oil export availability in the coming months.
Although the Black Sea region began its sunflower seed harvest in September, sunflower oil prices have remained firm, continuing to lead the vegetable oil complex. In mid-October, sunflower oil in the European market traded at USD1,360 per tonne, about USD75 higher than palm oil and USD100 above soybean oil, reflecting tight and uncertain supply conditions.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US-China trade conflict has started to cause a buildup in US soybean stocks, as the country began harvesting its crop in September and October. China has suspended soybean imports from the US since May 2025, sourcing almost entirely from South America. Although stronger domestic crushing activity and higher soybean oil consumption in the US are expected under the 45Z biofuel policy in 2026, which prioritizes domestically produced feedstock, these factors are insufficient to offset the sharp decline in exports to China.